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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japan's territory as China ramps up tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, active near the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.