A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
